Law & Principles, Economy

Study warns minimum-wage hike would cost Oklahoma 16,000 jobs, hit small businesses hardest

January 15, 2026

Curtis Shelton

Research from the National Federation of Independent Business shows that the minimum-wage increase proposed in SQ 832 would significantly harm Oklahoma’s economy. 

Over a 10-year period, the report estimates that 16,112 jobs would be lost, including 9,651 jobs at small businesses. The total negative economic impact is projected at $697 million, with $297 million of that loss borne by small businesses.

These findings align with research by David Neumark and Peter Shirley, who reviewed minimum-wage studies conducted since the 1990s and found that roughly 80 percent identified a negative relationship between employment and increases in the minimum wage. Their work suggests that minimum wage hikes can especially harm the very workers they are intended to help, with strong evidence that current minimum-wage earners are among those most negatively affected.

Anecdotal evidence from states with some of the highest minimum wages further illustrates the risks for young workers. California, Oregon, and Washington have all seen significant deterioration in labor market conditions for workers under 25 as their minimum wages have risen.

However well-intentioned the proponents of a higher minimum wage may be, the most likely results of SQ 832 would be reduced innovation from new business formation and fewer opportunities for low-income Oklahomans.