Economy

As Oklahomans cut back on dining out, poll suggests restaurants could face additional pressure under SQ 832

June 3, 2026

Ray Carter

On June 16, 2026, Oklahomans will vote on SQ 832. Visit www.sq832killsjobs.com to learn more.

Backers of State Question 832, which would increase Oklahoma’s minimum wage by more than 100 percent and then continue increasing it every year, have conceded the proposal will increase employer costs by nearly $800 million annually when first implemented.

That will translate into increased prices for a wide range of goods and services as business owners try to cover the mandated new expenses.

A new poll shows the increased costs created by SQ 832 could be the death knell for many Oklahoma restaurants.

The survey of 645 Oklahomans, commissioned by The State Chamber of Oklahoma and conducted in May, found that more than 70 percent of respondents said existing higher prices have caused them to cut back on eating at restaurants or ordering takeout over the past year. That includes 32 percent who said they have cut back a lot.

State Chamber officials warned that if 70 percent of Oklahomans are cutting back today, that figure could be much higher after additional cost increases are imposed by SQ 832.

“These numbers should get everyone’s attention,” said Adam Maxey, vice president of government affairs of The State Chamber of Oklahoma. “Oklahomans are already cutting back on routine purchases because everything costs more. Restaurants are one of the clearest places where families make those decisions.”

Under SQ 832, the minimum wage in Oklahoma will more than double from $7.25 an hour to $15 an hour by 2029, and then continue rising at a rapid pace every year thereafter based on increases in the cost of living in the nation’s largest urban centers, as measured by the U.S. Department of Labor’s Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers. That would effectively tie Oklahoma’s wage mandate to the cost of living in places like New York City or San Francisco.

As a result, while SQ 832 would initially mandate that entry-level jobs pay $15 an hour in 2029, an analysis by The State Chamber of Oklahoma and Oklahoma Farm Bureau found SQ 832 would put Oklahoma’s minimum wage on a fast track to $35.61 per hour and continue rising thereafter.

The Economic Policy Institute, which supports SQ 832, put out a report in March that estimated the increased labor expenses created by SQ 832 will be more than $783 million annually for Oklahoma employers at the initial $15-an-hour rate, and increase from there.

The increased cost of labor is expected to drive up prices for countless goods and services, including at restaurants.

A similar law in California provides a glimpse of what is likely to happen to restaurants in Oklahoma under SQ 832.

In April 2024, California increased the minimum wage for fast-food employees to $20 an hour.

In November 2024, the Employment Policies Institute found that the California wage law had reduced fast-food job opportunities and hit customers’ pocketbooks. Menu prices surged as much as 10.1 percent from the law’s 2023 passage to April 2024.

A February 2025 paper from the Berkeley Research Group found that menu prices at California’s fast-food restaurants increased by 14.5 percent between September 2023 (the month the wage legislation was signed into law) and October 2024, which was nearly double the national average during that time.

At an October 2025 study conducted by members of the Oklahoma House of Representatives, James Leewright, president and CEO of the Oklahoma Restaurant Association, warned that, adjusted for cost-of-living differences, a $20-an-hour wage in California was comparable to a $14-per-hour wage in Oklahoma, meaning the impact of SQ 832 could be even more severe than California’s law.

A paper published by the National Bureau of Economic Research found that, adjusting for trends before the law’s enactment in California, there had been a loss of 18,000 jobs in California’s fast-food sector. Researchers noted that California’s fast-food jobs declined even as industry jobs increased nationwide.

A solid majority of economists say a SQ 832-style mandate will drive up prices, according to a recent survey.

When the Employment Policies Institute commissioned a survey of 166 American economists in March and April, the survey found that 59 percent believe a $15 an hour minimum wage will increase consumers’ cost of living. If the minimum wage is boosted above $20 an hour, as SQ 832 would soon require, 84 percent of economists believe surging costs are likely, with 42 percent predicting an above-$20 wage mandate will increase consumer costs “significantly.”

“Affordability is showing up in the decisions Oklahomans make every week,” Maxey said. “When consumers are already pulling back from restaurants and takeout, policies that force additional costs onto employers can end up making affordability worse.”

The State Chamber is among the many entities and state leaders who are urging voters to reject SQ 832 and vote “no” on June 16.