Education

Oklahoma bucks national trend of declining high-school graduates

September 3, 2026

Ray Carter

A new analysis from the Committee to Unleash Prosperity shows the majority of states are expected to have fewer high-school graduates by 2041 due to demographic changes, but Oklahoma is not among them.

Instead, Oklahoma is expected to hold steady and maintain its current production of high-school graduates. Only 11 states are projected to do better by generating an overall increase in graduates.

The states expected to experience growth are located in the southern U.S., as well as Idaho, Montana, North Dakota, and South Dakota.

“We hate to keep pushing this story of the rise of the South, but it is the demographic tale that is set to define the nation economically for decades to come,” the Committee to Unleash Prosperity stated. “Not only are millions of northeasterners and west coasters shipping out to the low-tax and low-regulation southern states, but this is where the next generation of workers are located.”

The analysis projected percent change in high school graduates from 2023 to 2041 based on birth data from the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and an analysis of state graduation data by the Western Interstate Commission for Higher Education (WICHE).

The Committee to Unleash Prosperity analysis accounted for both public- and private-school graduates in all 50 states, plus the District of Columbia.

Some states are projected to experience a major decline in high-school graduates. Among them are Hawaii (33 percent decline), Illinois (32 percent decline), California (29 percent decline), and New York (27 percent decline).

Of the six states that border Oklahoma, five are expected to see a decline in high-school graduates in the coming years. The sixth bordering state, Texas, is expected to experience 5 percent growth.

The Committee to Unleash Prosperity analysis is the second in recent weeks to project a rosy demographic future for Oklahoma.

Since 2020, Oklahoma has experienced some of the nation’s highest levels of domestic migration as more people have moved here from other states than departed, contributing to overall population growth.

Researchers at the University of Virginia’s Weldon Cooper Center for Public Service recently predicted that Oklahoma’s trend of population growth will continue for decades.

In 2020, Oklahoma’s population was more than 3.9 million. By 2030, Weldon Cooper Center analysts predict Oklahoma’s population will reach more than 4.2 million, an increase of 7.6 percent over the decade.

The 7.6 percent population growth rate projected for Oklahoma between 2020 and 2030 is significantly greater than the 5.5 percent growth rate the state experienced between 2010 and 2020.

By 2050, officials project Oklahoma’s population will exceed 4.4 million.