Culture & the Family

Researchers project Oklahoma population growth will continue

August 25, 2026

Ray Carter

Since 2020, Oklahoma has experienced some of the nation’s highest levels of domestic migration as more people have moved here from other states than departed, contributing to overall population growth.

Now, researchers at the University of Virginia’s Weldon Cooper Center for Public Service predict that Oklahoma’s trend of population growth will continue for decades.

In 2020, Oklahoma’s population was more than 3.9 million. By 2030, less than four years from now, officials at the Weldon Cooper Center predict Oklahoma’s population will reach more than 4.2 million, an increase of 7.6 percent over the decade.

Among the six states that border Oklahoma, only two (Texas and Colorado) are projected to have greater population growth in percentage terms during the ongoing decade.

The 7.6 percent population growth rate projected for Oklahoma between 2020 and 2030 is significantly greater than the 5.5 percent growth rate the state experienced between 2010 and 2020.

Between 2010 and 2020, Oklahoma’s total population increased by 208,002 people. Between 2020 and 2030, it is now projected to increase by 302,597 people.

Oklahoma’s growth since 2020 has coincided with the adoption of a wide range of conservative policies, including significant income-tax cuts, creation of a statewide school-choice program, and adoption of culturally conservative policies such as a prohibition on males competing in women’s sports.

Officials at the Weldon Cooper Center project that Oklahoma’s population will continue to increase for several decades, rising 11.4 percent overall from 2020 to 2050. Officials project that the state population will jump from more than 3.9 million people in 2020 to more than 4.4 million by 2050.

Once again, among the six states that border Oklahoma, only Texas and Colorado are projected to have greater percentage growth by 2050 than the rate in Oklahoma.

Overall, only 16 states are projected to have a higher-percentage population growth than Oklahoma by 2050.

The United States’ overall population is projected to increase from 331 million in 2020 to 352 million a decade later and then continue to rise until reaching about 370 million in 2050.

The South’s share of the U.S. population is projected to grow from around 38 percent in 2020 to nearly 43 percent by 2050.