Economy

Survey: Vast majority of economists reject SQ 832-style wage hikes

May 11, 2026

Ray Carter

A recently released nationwide survey of economists shows the vast majority oppose a minimum-wage increase like that proposed in State Question 832 in Oklahoma.

A strong majority of economists warn that measures like SQ 832 will increase consumers’ cost of living, reduce youth jobs, harm small businesses, and fail to reduce poverty.

State Question 832, which will go before Oklahoma voters on June 16, would impose a $15 an hour minimum wage and require rapid escalation every year thereafter, putting the wage mandate on a fast track to $35 an hour and higher in future years.

The proposal would mandate continual annual increases in Oklahoma’s minimum wage based on increases in the cost of living in the nation’s largest urban centers, as measured by the U.S. Department of Labor’s Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers. That would effectively mandate wage levels far above market rates in Oklahoma, based on the cost of living in places like New York City or San Francisco.

As a result, while SQ 832 would initially mandate that entry-level jobs pay $15 an hour in 2029, the wage mandate would rapidly escalate. An analysis by The State Chamber of Oklahoma and Oklahoma Farm Bureau found SQ 832 would put Oklahoma’s minimum wage on a fast track to $35.61 per hour and continue rising thereafter.

Taking note of efforts to impose a minimum wage of $15 an hour or higher in Oklahoma and other states, the Employment Policies Institute, a nonprofit research organization dedicated to studying public policy issues surrounding employment growth, commissioned a survey of 166 American economists in March and April.

The survey found that 74 percent of surveyed economists opposed a $15 an hour minimum wage, while 90 percent opposed a $20 an hour minimum wage, and nearly all surveyed economists—96 percent—opposed a minimum wage of more than $20 an hour.

The intensity of opposition grew with the size of the wage mandate. The survey showed that 59 percent of surveyed economists strongly opposed raising the minimum wage to $15 an hour, while an overwhelming 89 percent strongly opposed raising the wage to more than $20.

Among the economists surveyed, 76 percent said a $15 an hour minimum wage will fail to reduce poverty rates. What if the wage is raised even higher, to more than $20 an hour? At that point, 90 percent of economists said the change would fail to reduce poverty.

Only 26 percent believed that increasing the minimum wage is effective at lifting workers out of poverty.

The strong majority of surveyed economists believe the associated negative impacts caused by a high minimum wage more than offset any gains some workers may receive.

The Employment Policies Institute summary noted, “As minimum wage rates increase, more economists think it will adversely affect the cost of living on average Americans.”

The survey found that 59 percent of economists believe a $15 an hour minimum wage will increase consumers’ cost of living. If the minimum wage is boosted above $20 an hour, as SQ 832 would force in Oklahoma in the future, 84 percent of economists believe surging costs are likely—with 42 percent predicting an above-$20 wage mandate will increase consumer costs “significantly.”

Many economists who identify as Democrats agreed that increasing the federal minimum wage will increase the cost of living, with 76 percent of Democratic economists believing a wage of more than $20 an hour will inflate normal living expenses for citizens.

Seventy-three percent of economists said a $15 minimum wage would also reduce youth jobs, while 95 percent said youth jobs would decline if the wage is raised to more than $20 an hour.

If Oklahoma’s minimum wage is set at $15 an hour, 69 percent of surveyed economists said small businesses will struggle to stay in business.

If Oklahoma’s wage is bumped above $20 an hour, the survey found that 98 percent of economists believe the mandate will make it harder for small businesses to survive in the state.

Ironically, an analysis released by supporters of SQ 832 conceded that the poverty rate would be substantially higher if SQ 832 took effect than the rate was in 2019, when the minimum wage was $7.25 an hour and had been left unchanged for a decade.

Aside from those surveyed by the Employment Policies Institute, other experts have warned that SQ 832 could have a significant negative impact on Oklahomans.

During an October 2025 study conducted by members of the Oklahoma House of Representatives, Peter Hansen, director of research and policy analysis at the National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB), warned that the impact of an artificially high wage law would reduce Oklahoma’s GDP by roughly $700 million by 2035 compared to what would happen if no change were made to the state’s minimum-wage law.

He warned that net job losses were likely in Oklahoma by 2031 and that 16,000 jobs could be lost by 2035 if the state’s minimum-wage law is increased dramatically.