Law & Principles

Top-two primary turnout doesn’t live up to hype

December 5, 2024

Ray Carter

When officials with Oklahoma United recently announced they were launching an initiative petition effort to mandate a “top two primary” election system in Oklahoma, similar to one used in California, one of the group’s main selling points was that the new system would increase voter turnout.

“Our message starts with voting,” Margaret Kobos, founder and CEO of Oklahoma United, declared at a press conference. “Oklahoma is last in U.S. voter turnout.”

Currently, citizens registered with Oklahoma’s major political parties participate in primary elections to select their nominees and those nominees then go before all voters at a general election.

But under the system proposed by Oklahoma United through State Question 835, all candidates from all parties would compete on a single June “jungle primary” ballot with all voters participating. The top two finishers would then proceed to the November ballot, even if both candidates are from the same political party.

Contrary to the claims of SQ 835 backers, state records show Oklahoma’s current system often generates far greater turnout than the participation rate in municipal elections that already use the top-two system in Oklahoma. Turnout trends appear far more linked to the timing of an election (with November general election races typically producing the largest turnout) and competitiveness.

At Oklahoma United’s press conference launching the signature-gathering process for SQ 835, officials said the top-two jungle primary is already commonly used in mayoral races in Oklahoma.

“That is how we vote in every single town and city in the state of Oklahoma today,” Kobos said.

Oklahoma City Mayor David Holt endorsed the California election model in a press release, saying, “Cities in Oklahoma like mine are known for our dynamic and effective governance, and the main reason is that we have an electoral system that allows everyone to vote. Our voters get to see all the candidates and our candidates have to face all the voters. As a result, our leadership delivers unity and consensus outcomes that are clearly moving us forward. The entire state deserves that same level of success, and that’s why an open primary system for Oklahoma is so important and so valuable.”

But records show that far fewer voters participated in Holt’s most recent election than participated in state and federal elections run through the traditional election system that would be outlawed for state races by SB 835.

The most recent Oklahoma City mayoral election, conducted on Feb. 8, 2022, included 185 precincts in Oklahoma County. There were 48,119 votes total cast in those precincts with Holt receiving 30,260.

That was an average of 260 votes cast per precinct with Holt receiving an average of about 164 votes per Oklahoma County precinct.

In contrast, in the Nov. 8, 2022, general election, there were 222,554 votes cast in 290 Oklahoma County precincts, an average of 767 votes per precinct. Gov. Kevin Stitt received 93,466 votes in the 290 Oklahoma County precincts while Democratic nominee Joy Hofmeister received 122,996 and two other candidates received the remainder. (Oklahoma County was one of only three counties carried by Hofmeister in the race.)

Stitt received an average of 322 votes per Oklahoma County precinct. That meant Stitt, even while losing Oklahoma County, received nearly twice as many raw votes per Oklahoma County precinct than Holt did in his successful mayoral campaign conducted under the SQ 835 model.

The gap is even larger when comparing voter support for Holt in his top-two election in Oklahoma County and the recently conducted presidential campaign, which was carried out through the traditional system that SQ 835 supporters want to eliminate in state elections.

On Nov. 5, 2024, there were 288,923 votes cast in the presidential race in Oklahoma County’s 290 precincts, an average of 996 votes per precinct. President-elect Donald Trump received 143,618 votes in Oklahoma County, an average of 495 votes per Oklahoma County precinct. Trump’s raw vote per precinct in Oklahoma County was more than 200 percent greater than Holt’s per-precinct average in Oklahoma County.

Officials with Oklahoma United also pointed to the recent Tulsa mayoral election, but turnout in that race was also lower than turnout in the top-line presidential race, indicating that the top-two model did not increase participation.

On Aug. 27, 2024, Tulsa voters participated in a “jungle” primary with multiple candidates that narrowed the field to two candidates in the November election. In August, there were 55,440 votes cast in 150 Tulsa County precincts, an average of just under 370 votes per precinct.

In the Nov. 5 runoff between the top two Tulsa mayoral candidates (both Democrats), there were 135,040 votes cast for mayor in the 150 Tulsa County precincts, an average of 900 votes per precinct.

But that per-precinct turnout was lower than what occurred in the presidential race in Tulsa County, conducted the same day, even though the presidential race was conducted through the election system Oklahoma United wants to repeal.

On Nov. 5, there were 256,939 votes cast for president in 251 Tulsa County precincts, an average of 1,023 votes per precinct, exceeding the average votes cast per Tulsa County precinct in the Tulsa mayoral race.