In an apparent promotion of State Question 832, which would increase the minimum wage in Oklahoma to a level well above the federal minimum wage, Tulsa Public Radio recently posted an article headlined “Raising the minimum wage could reduce eviction rates, data shows.”

While the article cited various figures, the only “data” consistent with the idea that eviction rates could fall after a minimum-wage increase came from a single study that appeared in the Journal of Urban Economics, which claimed evictions could fall 10.6 percent with a minimum-wage increase. We don’t know the data set used, what specific minimum-wage increases were included, or the methodology. The bulk of “evidence” in the article was a number of quotes from an economics lecturer at the University of Oklahoma, none of which included data or a single citation of a study.

Now, as an economist, I recognize that the social sciences aren’t hard sciences. However, the laws of supply and demand are the closest thing to rock-solid principles, similar to the law of gravity, that can be found in the social sciences. One wonders if the OU lecturer believes the laws of supply and demand have been repealed, and exactly what he replaces them with in the economics principles courses he teaches.

As I’ve explained in earlier blog posts, the laws of supply and demand apply in the low-skilled (and low-wage) labor market. It’s unavoidable that when the government establishes a minimum wage, there will be a surplus of low-wage labor (unemployment) caused by reduced demand for low-wage labor and an increased supply as well. It can’t be assumed, as the lecturer seems to do, that everybody with a low-wage job keeps it and all are suddenly better off when the government mandates a wage increase.

So, without ignoring the laws of supply and demand, let’s see how evictions of low-wage workers from low-rent housing might change with an increase in the minimum wage.

On the one hand, it’s true that not every unskilled worker will lose their job with an increase in the minimum wage. Those who keep their jobs will find themselves better off financially. Some of these who might have otherwise been evicted will be able to pay the rent. 

Those who lose their jobs—and job loss historically does not happen overnight—will find themselves far more likely to be evicted since it’s hard to pay the rent with no income at all. In addition, as I explained in an earlier blog post, some will find the higher minimum wage worth the effort and trouble to take a job that they otherwise would not have sought. A handful of them will take the opportunity to leave their parents’ nest, and they’re unlikely to be evicted any time soon.

So, what might happen to evictions from low-income rented housing with an increase in the minimum wage? It’s not easy to predict because there are opposing forces at work, but it’s quite possible the eviction rate will increase for a short time as some low-wage workers eventually lose their jobs. Then, because remaining low-wage workers who are paid the minimum wage are, indeed, better off, eviction rates will likely fall again.

People without jobs, of course, never begin to rent in the first place, so those displaced and despondent because of the minimum wage disappear from eviction statistics. That’s all the study from the Journal of Urban Economics likely means. It does not mean homelessness will be reduced. It could well be that homelessness increases markedly even as eviction rates fall.

The bottom line, though, is that the benefits of the minimum wage, which do accrue to some, come at a very real and severe cost to others. The article posted on the Tulsa Public Radio website noted a Federal Reserve study that indicates rents on low-income housing increase with the minimum wage precisely because those still employed after the dust settles from the increase can obviously afford the increase.

For those of us who’ve lived independently at or near the federal minimum wage, we know choices are limited at low wages, but they’re a lot better than if there were no job at all. Living life with a low-skill wage requires sharing rent with others. It limits leisure activities and one’s choice of groceries, but with a job, it’s at least a start. 

Raising the minimum wage is like moving the starting line up for some while knocking others off the track altogether. Maybe landlords benefit from not having to evict people as often. But is that “maybe” worth the cost of some seeing their incomes turn to zero?