The test of policy is not simply what people predict prior to its enactment, but what happens once a policy is in place. In Oklahoma, conservative fiscal policy has produced what advocates predicted: a growing economy that attracts new workers and investment.

When Gov. Kevin Stitt was elected to office in 2018, Oklahoma’s financial situation was in shambles. Massive tax increases had been enacted during an oil bust that did massive damage to our state economy. And some officials wanted to continue the tax-hiking trend, despite a recovery in the oil markets.

In 2019, Kent Olson, professor of economics emeritus at Oklahoma State University, predicted that Oklahoma state tax collections available for legislative appropriation would increase from $7.6 billion in 2019 to $11.2 billion by 2030. But Olson argued that spending should increase even faster, surging to $12.3 billion by 2030. As a result, he predicted an ever-growing “deficit” each year from 2020 to 2030, with the 2030 deficit hitting $1.1 billion.

Olson urged lawmakers to increase the personal income tax rate from 5 percent to 6 percent, expand the sales tax to include services, and nearly double the state’s gross production tax. Those taxes would have hammered Oklahomans at nearly all income levels.

Fortunately, the governor and state lawmakers not only ignored Olson’s recommendations but also did the opposite. Policymakers have cut the personal income tax to 4.5 percent, lifted the sales tax off groceries, and left the gross production tax unchanged.

They’ve also restrained spending, typically appropriating less than what is authorized, building up state reserves. Today, Oklahoma has billions of dollars in savings, something unthinkable before 2019.

What have those pro-growth policies wrought? Oklahoma has been a top 10 state for domestic migration, meaning far more people are moving to Oklahoma from other states than leaving. Hire a Helper, a moving company, found that Oklahoma ranked ninth nationally for domestic migration in 2025. Internal Revenue Service data show that domestic migration boosted Oklahoma’s net adjusted gross income by roughly $1.3 billion total from 2019 to 2023.

In the past two years, all three major credit rating agencies—Fitch, Moody’s, and S&P—have upgraded Oklahoma’s credit rating.

In contrast, what’s happened in big-spending, tax-hiking states? Well, California and New York are hemorrhaging population and income today. Big, expensive government has been a net negative.

Put simply, the outlook in Oklahoma is far, far better today than in 2018—and that status is thanks to our leaders rejecting “expert” opinion that claimed the only path to success required continually raising taxes and boosting government spending at an exponential rate. Instead, the opposite has proven true.

The numbers don’t lie. Conservative policy works.